Sweden’s final campaign weekend tests durability of rightward shift

STOCKHOLM — Sweden enters the final weekend before its September 13 election with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right governing experiment in doubt, as his bloc seeks a second term and the centre-left opposition led by Magdalena Andersson tries to return to power after four years in which the Sweden Democrats shaped policy from outside cabinet.

More than 8 million voters are eligible to choose the 349-seat Riksdag, along with regional and municipal councils, in an election that has become less a contest over a single policy programme than a test of which bloc can assemble a majority in a fragmented party system.¹ The Swedish Election Authority says early voting runs from August 26 through election day, with polling stations open on September 13 from 08:00 to 20:00 local time. Preliminary counting starts in polling stations on election night and continues when late-arriving advance votes are counted on the Wednesday after election day.⁸

Opinion polling points to a narrow centre-left advantage, but not a clear route to government. Reuters reported this week that Andersson’s opposition held a slim lead over Kristersson’s right-wing bloc, while PolitPro’s September 11 polling average put the Social Democrats first on 28.3%, the Sweden Democrats second on 19.3% and the Moderates third on 17.4%. The same tracker showed the governing alliance short of a majority and the Liberals at 3.5%, below Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold, a figure that could heavily affect seat arithmetic.³⁶

A vote on the Sweden Democrats’ place in power

The central question is whether the Sweden Democrats, who have backed Kristersson’s government in parliament since 2022, will move from influence to formal power. Reuters described the contest as effectively a referendum on whether the far-right party should join government, noting that Kristersson has promised to deepen cooperation with Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson and offer cabinet posts if the right wins.²

Kristersson has argued that the 2022 arrangement delivered lower inflationary pressure, lower energy and food prices, reduced gang crime and sharply lower asylum numbers. Over the past four years, the government has tightened migration and welfare rules, abolished permanent residency for refugees and expanded expulsions for people without a right to stay, according to Reuters.²

For the Sweden Democrats, the campaign is a chance to cement their transformation from a party long treated as outside the mainstream into an accepted centre-right partner. For opponents, the question is whether that normalization has already shifted Sweden’s political centre of gravity, especially on migration, Islam, crime and national identity.²⁴

Migration, crime and identity remain defining issues

Migration and crime remain closely linked in campaign rhetoric, even as welfare, energy, healthcare and household finances have pushed onto the agenda. The Guardian reported from Malmö and Stockholm that Muslim voters and activists see the Sweden Democrats’ influence as having moved public debate sharply rightward, with minority communities concerned about the long-term effect of language linking migration, Islam and crime.⁴

The Sweden Democrats have called for tougher integration demands and stronger emphasis on Swedish cultural norms. Critics say proposals such as ending multiculturalism and restricting some Muslim dress would deepen social divisions and raise civil-liberties concerns if the party entered cabinet.²

Malmö, a diverse southern city often used in national debates about migration and segregation, shows the limits of a campaign framed only around identity. Al Jazeera’s reporting found voters in vulnerable neighbourhoods also focused on “wallet politics,” including healthcare, unemployment and the cost of living. Unemployment in Malmö was reported at around 11%, among the highest levels for a Swedish municipality.⁵

Cost of living and energy cut across blocs

The governing bloc is campaigning on stability, lower taxes, tougher crime policy and the claim that cooperation with the Sweden Democrats is the only realistic way for the right to form a majority government. Reuters’ election guide said Kristersson’s Moderates have centred their campaign on crime and tax cuts, while the Sweden Democrats are seeking cabinet influence after four years as parliamentary backers.³

The opposition is campaigning on welfare, climate measures, public services and inequality. The Social Democrats are promising to protect welfare and support growth, the Greens are pushing renewable energy and climate investment, the Left wants higher welfare spending financed partly by taxes on the wealthy, and the Centre Party is emphasizing jobs, rural public services and climate action.³

Energy policy could complicate any centre-left return. Reuters reported that the opposition parties broadly agree on higher welfare and public spending but differ on issues including wealth taxation and whether Sweden should build new nuclear reactors. The Centre Party has also ruled out sitting in government with the Left Party, limiting Andersson’s options even if the opposition wins more seats.²

Coalition arithmetic may decide the result

Sweden’s 4% threshold gives smaller parties outsized importance. AP noted that parties must clear 4% of the national vote to win Riksdag seats, meaning a small shift for or against the Liberals — part of Kristersson’s current three-party government — could determine whether the right has a viable majority.¹

PolitPro’s September 11 average placed the Liberals below the threshold, though several late individual polls showed them above it. That uncertainty makes the final weekend especially important: if the Liberals fall short, right-bloc votes could be wasted; if they survive, Kristersson’s path becomes more plausible.⁶

For Andersson, victory would not automatically bring stability. AP and Reuters both emphasize that Sweden’s two broad blocs are internally complex. The centre-left would have to reconcile Social Democrats, Greens, Left and Centre positions, potentially forming a broad majority government, a narrower minority cabinet, or a Social Democratic-led government seeking support case by case.¹³

A sharp close to the campaign

The final stretch has also become personal. SVT reported that Åkesson’s question to Andersson in a televised debate — asking why she was “so sour” — drew criticism from several party figures and was described by commentators as a possible own goal, while some right-wing politicians praised the attack.⁷

The exchange underscored a campaign in which leadership, tone and government formation have often overshadowed policy detail. AP cited experts saying the campaign had been fragmented, with voters focused heavily on who can govern rather than on a single dominant issue.¹

By Sunday night, Sweden may know which bloc is ahead. But because late advance votes are counted later and final seat allocation is not completed immediately, the full consequences for government formation may take longer. The result will determine whether the Sweden Democrats remain powerful outsiders, enter government for the first time, or watch a centre-left bloc return to power while facing its own difficult arithmetic.⁸

Sweden’s final campaign weekend tests durability of rightward shift

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A vote on the Sweden Democrats’ place in power

Migration, crime and identity remain defining issues

Cost of living and energy cut across blocs

Coalition arithmetic may decide the result

A sharp close to the campaign

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